WTC scenarios: South Africa replace Australia in top-two after Cape Town Test
Holders South Africa climb up to second while New Zealand are at the top of the pile
South Africa’s series win over Australia and West Indies’ win over Bangladesh in Dhaka have widened the gap between the top three and the bottom six teams. New Zealand have surged to the top of the WTC table after Australia’s defeat, pushing the Aussies out of the top two. South Africa jumped to the second position - after a Cape Town win - with a points percentage (PCT) of 71.43 in the 2025-27 cycle. A PCT of 65 will be enough for a team to confirm a top-two finish and a spot for next year's World Test Championship final at the Oval.
With 10 Test series among nine teams still to go in this current WTC cycle, no team has booked its place in the final yet. Here are the qualification scenarios for all the teams:
WTC Points Table
Note: In the WTC 2025-2027, teams will get 12 points for a win, 4 for a draw, and 6 for a tie. The points percentage system (PCT) will be used to determine the leaderboard. PCT = Points won by a team / Points contested * 100.
New Zealand
Remaining fixtures: IND (2 Tests, home), AUS (4 Tests, away), SL (2 Tests, home), PAK (2 Tests, away)
New Zealand have climbed to the top of the WTC table after Australia’s defeat in Cape Town with 72.22 PCT. They still have 10 Tests to play in this cycle. Of the remaining 120 points, if they win 6 Tests, they will finish on 64.6, which might not be enough. While seven wins and three losses would take them to 70.83%, then they will have a strong chance for a top-two finish. They have four home fixtures against India and Sri Lanka, which will decide their fate for a second WTC final appearance.
South Africa
Remaining fixtures: BAN (2 Tests, home), ENG (3 Tests, home), SL (2 Tests, away)
Series win over Australia has put South Africa in a strong position for a top-two finish. They have seven games remaining in this cycle and five of them at home. If they win the series against Bangladesh and England by clean sweeps, it could take Bavuma’s side past 71.42%, which will be sufficient for a ticket to the final. Four wins will take Proteas to 64.28 PCT, which might not be sufficient.
Australia
Remaining fixtures: NZ (4 Tests, home), IND (5 Tests, away)
Before the South Africa tour, Australia were on top of the table with 80 PCT, with eight wins and just two defeats from ten matches. But two successive losses put them out of the top two for the first time in this cycle. Still, they have their fate in their hands. They currently have 69.23 points percentage, but face tough tests against New Zealand at home and against India in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in early 2027. They need to win at least six out of their nine remaining Tests to take them to 67.2%. If they win only four and play out a couple of draws with a split of results, it will likely enough to keep them in the top two.
India
Remaining fixtures: NZ (2 Tests, away); Aus (5 Tests, home)
India sit fourth on 51.52 PCT after the Colombo draw. Winning all their remaining seven Tests, will give them a PCT of 70.37. Even six wins, will take them to 65%. If they win five Tests and play out a draw, then they will need other results to go their way. A 0-2 loss in New Zealand followed by a 5-0 home sweep of Australia would leave India on 59.26%, which might not be sufficient to finish in the top two.
Bangladesh
Remaining fixtures: WI (1 Test, home), SA (2 Tests, away), ENG (2 Tests, home)
A defeat in Dhaka against West Indies puts Bangladesh behind India at fifth position with 47.62%. Now they need to win all their five remaining matches to go past the 65% mark. If they lose even one more Test, it will take them to only 61.11%, which will not be enough for them to reach the top two finish.
Sri Lanka
Remaining fixtures: PAK (2 Tests, away), NZ (2 Tests, away), SA (2 Tests, home)
Currently, Sri Lanka have only 33.33 PCT from six matches they have played so far. A draw against India in their home Test keeps their WTC final dream alive. With six Tests left, winning all of them would take them to 66.67, which might be sufficient for their qualification chances if other results go their way.
